Les Jauron

LES

About Author

I believe that where we are is a direct consequence of where we’ve been. Context matters. I also believe that the human enterprise unfolds in cycles. Some of these are longer than others.

In my view, these cycles result from the complex interplay between a variety of human factors. These include institutions, ambition, reaction to environmental change, innovation, and memory.

An example of a short-term cycle is the credit cycle that causes recessions about every ten years. These recessions are usually caused by high interest rates and ended by reducing interest rates. Although recession is devastating to some people, it usually doesn’t result in major societal change or collapse.

A example of a longer-term cycle is world conflict. In 1648, the Peace of Westphalia, which ended the Thirty-Years-War, created the modern nation-state. It also ushered in a long period of world peace. This ended with a period of conflict that began with the Seven Years War as nation states fought for preeminence, and ended with the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, which challenged the definition of a nation-state. After Napoleon was defeated at Waterloo in 1815, the Congress of Vienna mostly reestablished the previous system. This period of peace lasted for a century until its contradictions led to the two World Wars. I see these as a continuation of the same struggle, although the players were somewhat different.

Now, eighty years later, we’re seeing world wide conflict beginning again. My father fought in the First Marine Division during World War II. He came back as a twenty-one-year old with no hair, no teeth, shrapnel oozing out of his back, malaria, and a bad case of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. My grandchildren now play video games that feature the most graphic violence. Our collective memory of global conflict is at an end. This makes it far more likely in the near future.


Empires also rise and fall on a somewhat predictable cycle. They start when a country has a major competitive advantage and leverages that advantage to gain domination over a large part of the world. However, over time that advantage erodes. Finally, the tottering empire is forced to solely depend on the strength of its currency to maintain its position of dominance. And, yes, the United States in an empire. In fact, it is probably the largest and most influential empire in history. Unfortunately, its dominance now depends, almost solely, on the use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. As it was when the Roman solidus or the British pound was the most important medium of commercial exchange.


Memory, or lack of it, plays a major role in this cycle as well. The population believes it is entitled to empire because of its exceptionalism. Crowds chant, “USA! USA! USA!” But the performance doesn’t match the rhetoric. One reason is structural. It’s hard to manage a global empire. Another is an unwillingness to do hard things when easier things are so possible.


I believe that these factors are human-driven and the resulting cycles somewhat predictable. They will become even more predictable as our Artificial Intelligence algorithms get better based on what they learn and the quality of the information they’re given. What we’ll do with what they learn is anyone’s guess.

The most important human factor in the cycles that provide context to our lives is our collective memory. Global conflict becomes acceptable to democratic societies when the people forget the horrors of war. In 1914 massive crowds in Berlin, Saint Petersburg, Paris, and London demonstrated in favor of going to war to assuage national honor. They’d forgotten the horrors of the Napoleonic Wars. Not surprisingly, there were no such demonstrations in 1939.

Innovation acts as the ultimate disruptor. It changes our lives in profound ways and also serves to disguise the unfolding cycles. Many say, “This time is different,” even though it often isn’t.

My major purpose in writing is to keep collective memory alive and to ask questions about the factors that create the cycles that provide context to our lives. What if what our institutions tell us isn’t true? What if the ambition of our politicians includes destroying our institutions to grab unlimited power? What if technology is becoming so powerful and tightly controlled that truth is less important than control over the flow of information?

I use novels to discuss issues like these. I do this because academic writing is too constrained for my taste and too dry to be read by most people. I also believe that our minds react better to narratives about fictional people than to theories, hypotheses, and the scientific method.

So, my purpose in writing is to help people to draw their own conclusions about the world based on the stories of fictional characters. Hopefully, the people who read what I’ve written enjoy the stories. I also hope the stories provoke thought, and ultimately, positive change.